Whether the lockdown of a country is an effective measure or not, and that can only truly be judged in hindsight, there have been consequences that were not foreseen. The media is saturating our minds with constant updates of Coronavirus numbers and daily deaths. Every death is a tragedy, but looking at the number of deaths which normally occur, without a pandemic, I was surprised. Under normal circumstances, an average of 1,711 people die each day in the UK (that’s 9.4 per 1000 per year of the population),1,185 in Spain (9.2 per 1000) and 7,883 in the USA (8.9 per 1000). If we read those figures in the papers daily, we’d be horrified. But that is the norm.
The unexpected effects of the lockdown, both good and bad, are interesting. Firstly, I’ve noted that climate change has all but disappeared from the news. That was the subject of doom in daily drip feeds previously. Pollution is still being reported, but for a different reason. We now see that clouds of air pollution have reduced globally, and especially where manufacturing and population movement has slowed down. The sight of cleaner canals in Venice, now home to fish and not tourists, is a welcome demonstration of this. Another unexpected benefit of the lockdowns is that crime has been drastically reduced. Burglaries have been cut by half; it wouldn’t be clever for a thief to be caught skulking around deserted streets. Whether domestic violence and divorce will increase as families are forced to share space for days on end is yet to be seen. Politicians have, at last, shown that they can be civil to each other and party lines have propitiously blurred. Support from all parties for the leader of a country will surely be appreciated by the majority of voters.
The measures being taken will certainly result in a huge economic effect on a country. Whereas governments have previously fought against over expenditure, now they are throwing money at the problem. There will come a time when the overspend will have to be accounted for, but that is for the future. The health services are at near breaking point, even though staff and materials are being drastically increased. Intensive care beds and equipment are in short supply and doctors realise that they must prioritise their cases. Those who are more likely to survive, not necessarily chosen by age, will be given beds, which must put stress on medical staff who are trained to save lives.
Employment issues are also very costly. In normal times, governments say that increased benefits can’t be afforded. Now, in various schemes, wages will be heavily subsidised by governments and businesses will receive loans to keep them afloat. However, some of those businesses will not survive. In the end, governments will have to accept more debt or try and balance their books. I imagine that there will be many arguments within the EU as individual countries make their case for demanding more money from the combined budget pot.
The way some people are shopping has come in for a lot of criticism. Panic buying, seen as antisocial, is something few people admit to, but is happening to such a selfish extent that the amount of some products that can be bought is restricted. We are assured that ample supplies are available, but panic breeds panic and supermarkets are having their busiest time. As a result, they are relatively crowded, even when they limit the number of people entering, while a small shop owner selling non-foods is unable to do any business and is losing money. There are sensible precautions against overcrowding and there are excessive ones.
These emergency measures around the world will continue for some time. Spain, for example, has just declared that their State of Alarm will continue for a further 15 days. Hopefully, as reported in China, the numbers of new cases will dry up and we can move on from the upheaval that the pandemic has caused. People surely won’t forget 2020 in a hurry, and will have innumerable stories of how they coped during the roller-coaster of these troubled times.